Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -200 PEPP +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -5.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (+20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -6.3 (+3.7) | 138.4 (+17.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -8.1 (+1.9) | 134.7 (+21.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -5.0 (+5.0) | 135.9 (+20.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -5.0 (+5.0) | 137.2 (+18.8) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2021 | GCU 59 – 56 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 2-14 |
| Home | 14-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#105) | 3.5 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#129) | -0.05 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#112) | 0.44 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#116) | 0.480 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 40.8% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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