Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +3 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -5.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -6.4 (-3.4) | 131.4 (-10.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -7.1 (-4.1) | 129.0 (-8.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -5.5 (-2.5) | 131.9 (-10.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -6.0 (-3.0) | 131.8 (-10.8) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2022 | SIU 74 – 68 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 9-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.6 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#152) | 2.9 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#157) | -1.42 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#162) | -2.10 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#152) | 0.491 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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