Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | SIU -1200 ALCN +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +6 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -13.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.0 (+13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -11.3 (-5.3) | 132.1 (+9.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -9.4 (-3.4) | 131.9 (+10.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -10.1 (-4.1) | 132.2 (+9.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -11.8 (-5.8) | 133.0 (+9.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2021 | SIU 62 – 59 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-2 | 7-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 10-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.7 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#95) | -3.6 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#117) | 0.74 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#152) | 0.87 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#112) | 0.546 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 41.3% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 19.1% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
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