I got a baby's brain and an old man's heart "I'm Eighteen" - Alice Cooper
Reynolds Center · November 27, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread TLSA -12.5 Home covered
O/U 132.0 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total TLSA win
Actual TLSA +14 140 Won
Massey TLSA -10.9 (+3.1)
Massey Totals 142.0 (-2.0)
Bradley-Terry 90%
Weighted B-T 99%
Baseline Plus ML TLSA -8.2 (+5.8) 139.6 (+0.4) 77%
Baseline ML TLSA -8.1 (+5.9) 141.1 (-1.1) 75%
Baseline Tuned ML TLSA -7.3 (+6.7) 141.3 (-1.3) 75%
Efficiency Plus ML TLSA -9.9 (+4.1) 138.2 (+1.8) 79%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 21, 2024 LR 7157 TLSA
Nov 25, 2023 LR 8482 TLSA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TLSA LR
Overall 11-20 9-19
Conference 4-14 3-11
Home 8-8 6-7
Away 1-10 1-10
Neutral 2-2 2-2
Last 5 3-2 2-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 67.4 64.1
Avg Pts Against 69.9 75.4
Massey -4.2 (#255) -8.2 (#315)
Bradley-Terry 0.20 (#164) -0.43 (#213)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.37 (#111) -1.06 (#231)
RPI 0.524 (#149) 0.420 (#273)
Shooting & Four Factors TLSA LR
FG% 42.4% 41.9%
3PT% 33.0% 23.4%
REB / G 30.8 33.2
OREB / G 10.2 8.5
AST / TO 1.00 0.83
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.3% 45.3%
TOV% 16.0% 22.0%
ORB% 29.8% 25.4%
FT Rate 20.3% 29.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.6% 53.7%
Opp TOV% 23.2% 23.4%
DRB% 66.0% 70.7%
Opp FT Rate 13.6% 15.5%

Game Analysis

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