Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +14 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -10.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -8.2 (+5.8) | 139.6 (+0.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -8.1 (+5.9) | 141.1 (-1.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -7.3 (+6.7) | 141.3 (-1.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -9.9 (+4.1) | 138.2 (+1.8) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 21, 2024 | LR 71 – 57 TLSA |
| Nov 25, 2023 | LR 84 – 82 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 9-19 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 3-11 |
| Home | 8-8 | 6-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#255) | -8.2 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#164) | -0.43 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#111) | -1.06 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#149) | 0.420 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 23.4% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.6% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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