Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | LR +148 TLSA -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +2 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | LR -4.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -2.2 (-0.2) | 156.8 (+9.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -1.9 (+0.1) | 149.8 (+16.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -2.0 (+0.0) | 148.4 (+17.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -2.9 (-0.9) | 152.8 (+13.2) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 21, 2024 | LR 71 – 57 TLSA |
| Nov 27, 2021 | TLSA 77 – 63 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#202) | 1.2 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#292) | 1.56 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#278) | 2.07 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.414 (#281) | 0.534 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 25.2% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 46.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 34.5% | 38.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 38.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.4% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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