He took it all too far, but boy could he play guitar. "Ziggy Stardust" - David Bowie
Jack Stephens Center · November 25, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread TLSA -3.5 Home covered
O/U 157.5 Over
Money LR +148 / TLSA -175
Model Predictions
Spread Total LR win
Actual LR +2 166 Won
Massey LR -4.0 (-2.0)
Massey Totals 157.4 (+8.6)
Bradley-Terry 17%
Weighted B-T 11%
Baseline Plus ML LR -2.2 (-0.2) 156.8 (+9.2) 59%
Baseline ML LR -1.9 (+0.1) 149.8 (+16.2) 52%
Baseline Tuned ML LR -2.0 (+0.0) 148.4 (+17.6) 50%
Efficiency Plus ML LR -2.9 (-0.9) 152.8 (+13.2) 63%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 21, 2024 LR 7157 TLSA
Nov 27, 2021 TLSA 7763 LR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LR TLSA
Overall 21-13 16-15
Conference 14-4 7-11
Home 14-4 14-4
Away 6-6 2-9
Neutral 1-3 0-2
Last 5 1-4 4-0
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 77.3 74.3
Avg Pts Against 72.5 74.5
Massey -1.7 (#202) 1.2 (#140)
Bradley-Terry -1.48 (#292) 1.56 (#63)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.90 (#278) 2.07 (#76)
RPI 0.414 (#281) 0.534 (#133)
Shooting & Four Factors LR TLSA
FG% 41.0% 40.7%
3PT% 25.2% 29.6%
REB / G 34.2 46.8
OREB / G 12.2 14.8
AST / TO 1.20 0.89
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.2% 46.7%
TOV% 14.3% 20.2%
ORB% 29.8% 36.6%
FT Rate 34.5% 38.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.6% 38.8%
Opp TOV% 18.5% 20.5%
DRB% 65.1% 69.6%
Opp FT Rate 40.4% 17.8%

Game Analysis

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