But where the fuck is the waitress at with my drinks! "Stand Up" - Ludacris
Reynolds Center · November 21, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread TLSA -12.5 Away covered
O/U 150.5 Under
Money TLSA -800 / LR +500
Model Predictions
Spread Total TLSA win
Actual LR +14 128 Lost
Massey TLSA -7.2 (-21.2)
Massey Totals 170.9 (-42.9)
Bradley-Terry 82%
Weighted B-T 91%
Baseline Plus ML TLSA -9.5 (-23.5) 155.9 (-27.9) 69%
Baseline ML TLSA -8.2 (-22.2) 155.3 (-27.3) 72%
Baseline Tuned ML TLSA -5.8 (-19.8) 153.3 (-25.3) 72%
Efficiency Plus ML TLSA -6.1 (-20.1) 154.0 (-26.0) 67%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 25, 2023 LR 8482 TLSA
Nov 27, 2021 TLSA 7763 LR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TLSA LR
Overall 13-20 19-14
Conference 6-12 12-8
Home 8-9 9-5
Away 3-8 9-7
Neutral 2-3 1-2
Last 5 2-1 1-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.1 68.5
Avg Pts Against 74.2 67.7
Massey -0.1 (#181) -0.6 (#189)
Bradley-Terry -0.23 (#202) -0.32 (#207)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.41 (#207) -0.85 (#232)
RPI 0.405 (#292) 0.421 (#277)
Shooting & Four Factors TLSA LR
FG% 44.7% 44.0%
3PT% 29.7% 38.9%
REB / G 41.7 33.7
OREB / G 15.3 9.7
AST / TO 1.63 0.82
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.9% 50.3%
TOV% 12.0% 23.2%
ORB% 33.1% 27.9%
FT Rate 33.6% 25.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.1% 44.7%
Opp TOV% 20.2% 22.3%
DRB% 67.5% 55.0%
Opp FT Rate 28.1% 36.9%

Game Analysis

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