Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA -800 LR +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +14 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | TLSA -7.2 (-21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.9 (-42.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -9.5 (-23.5) | 155.9 (-27.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -8.2 (-22.2) | 155.3 (-27.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -5.8 (-19.8) | 153.3 (-25.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -6.1 (-20.1) | 154.0 (-26.0) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2023 | LR 84 – 82 TLSA |
| Nov 27, 2021 | TLSA 77 – 63 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-9 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#181) | -0.6 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#202) | -0.32 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#207) | -0.85 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#292) | 0.421 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 41.7 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 15.3 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 12.0% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 33.6% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 55.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 36.9% |
Game Analysis
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