Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +6 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | NCAT -4.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -1.7 (+4.3) | 136.5 (+3.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -3.3 (+2.7) | 136.0 (+4.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -2.6 (+3.4) | 136.3 (+3.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -3.2 (+2.8) | 137.3 (+2.7) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#221) | -7.0 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#319) | -2.90 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#303) | -4.26 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.360 (#334) | 0.376 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 12.7% | 14.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 57.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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