Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +10 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | UPST -0.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -4.8 (-5.2) | 152.5 (+11.5) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -1.4 (-11.4) | 148.4 (+15.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -0.7 (-10.7) | 149.2 (+14.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -0.6 (-9.4) | 152.0 (+12.0) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 28, 2020 | FUR 91 – 63 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#228) | 4.1 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#187) | 1.16 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#229) | 2.59 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#212) | 0.563 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 24.6% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 62.0% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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