Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -25.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +9 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -17.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+30.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -16.9 (-7.9) | 150.8 (+28.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -14.0 (-5.0) | 147.9 (+31.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -15.8 (-6.8) | 147.0 (+32.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -14.6 (-5.6) | 150.3 (+28.7) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2025 | ILL 87 – 73 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 3-15 |
| Home | 13-3 | 4-9 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 79.7 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#64) | -4.4 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#114) | 1.26 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#100) | 2.25 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#44) | 0.594 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 45.8 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 16.6 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 25.3% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 42.6% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.3% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 78.1% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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