Betting Lines
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +14 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -24.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -25.4 (-11.4) | 161.8 (-1.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -21.5 (-7.5) | 156.0 (+4.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -24.9 (-10.9) | 155.2 (+4.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -26.4 (-12.4) | 155.2 (+4.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2021 | ILL 94 – 85 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 8-2 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 18.2 (#5) | -0.2 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#75) | -0.77 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#58) | -1.05 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#55) | 0.456 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 41.6% |
| REB / G | 45.8 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 42.8% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 79.1% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.5% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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