But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed
State Farm Center · November 25, 2025
Betting Lines
O/U 165.5 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total ILL win
Actual ILL +14 160 Won
Massey ILL -24.7 (-10.7)
Massey Totals 163.7 (-3.7)
Bradley-Terry 97%
Weighted B-T 100%
Efficiency Plus ML ILL -25.4 (-11.4) 161.8 (-1.8) 91%
Baseline Tuned ML ILL -21.5 (-7.5) 156.0 (+4.0) 91%
Baseline ML ILL -24.9 (-10.9) 155.2 (+4.8) 90%
Baseline Plus ML ILL -26.4 (-12.4) 155.2 (+4.8) 91%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 27, 2021 ILL 9485 RGV

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ILL RGV
Overall 28-9 19-14
Conference 15-5 14-8
Home 14-3 10-5
Away 8-2 8-8
Neutral 6-4 1-1
Last 5 4-1 1-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 83.2 73.7
Avg Pts Against 68.8 70.6
Massey 18.2 (#5) -0.2 (#177)
Bradley-Terry 1.59 (#75) -0.77 (#243)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.78 (#58) -1.05 (#240)
RPI 0.601 (#55) 0.456 (#247)
Shooting & Four Factors ILL RGV
FG% 50.2% 48.1%
3PT% 35.4% 41.6%
REB / G 45.8 32.5
OREB / G 14.8 8.5
AST / TO 1.40 1.11
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 57.9% 55.8%
TOV% 13.9% 18.7%
ORB% 42.8% 26.0%
FT Rate 26.5% 16.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.1% 52.9%
Opp TOV% 13.1% 16.5%
DRB% 79.1% 66.2%
Opp FT Rate 13.5% 29.3%

Game Analysis

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