Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | VT -215 XAV +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +1 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | VT -9.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -4.6 (-5.6) | 131.8 (-14.8) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -5.5 (-6.5) | 134.5 (-17.5) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VT -4.5 (-5.5) | 134.0 (-17.0) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -4.2 (-5.2) | 133.1 (-16.1) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 16-5 |
| Away | 7-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#13) | 5.8 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.16 (#8) | 1.77 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.62 (#2) | 2.89 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#114) | 0.688 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 38.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.0% | 43.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.6% | 14.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.