Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +10 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -0.2 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+31.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -0.4 (-9.6) | 136.6 (+27.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -0.4 (-10.4) | 137.7 (+26.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -0.1 (-10.1) | 137.8 (+26.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -1.3 (-8.7) | 136.9 (+27.1) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-11 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#301) | -0.1 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#289) | 0.22 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.35 (#294) | 0.16 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#244) | 0.491 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 21.7% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 24.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.1% | 12.9% |
Game Analysis
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