Incarnate Word
Cardinals
64
–
83
FINAL
Incarnate Word Thanksgiving Invitational
Montana State
Bobcats
Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
| Money | UIW +450 MTST -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +19 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -4.4 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -6.7 (-12.3) | 144.0 (+3.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -4.3 (-14.7) | 145.8 (+1.2) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -3.7 (-15.3) | 147.8 (-0.8) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -5.1 (-13.9) | 144.6 (+2.4) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 16-4 |
| Home | 5-10 | 13-1 |
| Away | 1-11 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#328) | 1.9 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.32 (#351) | -0.18 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.10 (#351) | -0.57 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#263) | 0.519 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 27.8 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 28.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.1% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
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