Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +18 | 104 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -16.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (-23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -17.8 (+0.2) | 124.4 (-20.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -12.5 (+5.5) | 130.8 (-26.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -14.5 (+3.5) | 129.7 (-25.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -14.0 (+4.0) | 124.5 (-20.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-7 | 9-7 |
| Away | 7-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.1 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#90) | -5.2 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#98) | -2.84 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#67) | -4.79 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#97) | 0.366 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 24.4% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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