Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORE +24 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -3.8 (-27.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORE -2.0 (-22.0) | 132.1 (-6.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -3.7 (-27.7) | 134.8 (-8.8) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -5.2 (-29.2) | 135.8 (-9.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -2.5 (-26.5) | 134.5 (-8.5) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2020 | MORE 69 – 61 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 6-7 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 64.4 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#254) | -1.0 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#82) | -1.06 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#107) | -1.36 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#80) | 0.488 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.9% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 23.7% | 26.1% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 58.0% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 7.3% |
Game Analysis
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