Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +11 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | AF -16.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -11.0 (+0.0) | 129.0 (-22.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -8.6 (+2.4) | 126.3 (-19.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -12.5 (-1.5) | 122.4 (-15.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -12.8 (-1.8) | 125.5 (-18.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 4-13 | 5-15 |
| Home | 7-6 | 5-8 |
| Away | 2-11 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.0 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#207) | -11.3 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#43) | -2.03 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#85) | -2.59 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#142) | 0.341 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 5.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 20.7% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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