Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +8 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -4.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (+13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -3.0 (+5.0) | 147.0 (+11.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -3.3 (+4.7) | 141.6 (+16.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -3.5 (+4.5) | 143.2 (+14.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -4.5 (+3.5) | 144.7 (+13.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 4-10 |
| Home | 13-2 | 6-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#198) | -5.8 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#96) | -1.00 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#123) | -1.79 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#139) | 0.484 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 36.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 22.0% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 40.2% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 24.6% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 13.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 62.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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