Betting Lines
| Spread | URI -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | URI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | URI +35 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | URI -5.6 (+29.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | URI -4.7 (+30.3) | 145.2 (+7.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | URI -2.4 (+32.6) | 141.9 (+11.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | URI -5.3 (+29.7) | 143.9 (+9.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | URI -4.5 (+30.5) | 145.8 (+7.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2022 | GAST 75 – 66 URI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | URI | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 5-12 | 9-5 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#105) | 5.4 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#153) | 0.89 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#131) | 1.01 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#135) | 0.508 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | URI | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 41.4% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 35.4% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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