Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BOIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUB +7 | 85 | Lost |
| Massey | BOIS -26.1 (-33.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (-48.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BOIS -17.2 (-24.2) | 130.7 (-45.7) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -18.7 (-25.7) | 137.9 (-52.9) | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BOIS -22.5 (-29.5) | 138.0 (-53.0) | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BOIS -20.2 (-27.2) | 132.7 (-47.7) | 90% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BOIS | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 8-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 2-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 5-7 |
| Away | 9-3 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#35) | -9.4 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#54) | -1.12 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#50) | -1.63 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.653 (#22) | 0.359 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BOIS | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 7.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 59.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 35.8% |
Game Analysis
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