Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +15 | 105 | Lost |
| Massey | PSU -3.2 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (-27.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -2.3 (-12.7) | 130.4 (-25.4) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -2.7 (-12.3) | 137.2 (-32.2) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -3.3 (-11.7) | 136.7 (-31.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -2.7 (-12.3) | 134.4 (-29.4) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-28 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 7-13 |
| Home | 3-13 | 10-5 |
| Away | 0-12 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L18 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 65.0 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#237) | -0.1 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#323) | 1.18 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#290) | 1.31 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#296) | 0.563 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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