Betting Lines
| Spread | UVU -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVU +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UVU -16.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVU -13.0 (-4.0) | 140.3 (+4.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVU -12.9 (-3.9) | 142.7 (+2.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVU -14.2 (-5.2) | 141.5 (+3.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVU -13.3 (-4.3) | 140.6 (+4.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-2 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.7 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#67) | -2.8 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#30) | -0.94 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#47) | -1.81 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#117) | 0.403 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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