Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +27 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -5.3 (-21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.8 (-18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -6.3 (-20.7) | 130.1 (-23.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -8.3 (-18.7) | 125.5 (-18.5) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -4.0 (-23.0) | 133.0 (-26.0) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -4.8 (-22.2) | 132.1 (-25.1) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2022 | NAVY 75 – 59 MSM |
| Nov 28, 2020 | NAVY 73 – 67 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-7 | 9-6 |
| Away | 6-11 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 60.8 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#296) | 5.3 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#220) | 2.19 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#269) | 4.07 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#225) | 0.614 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 25.3% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 24.1% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 63.1% | 78.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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