Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -250 MSM +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +16 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -8.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -8.5 (+7.5) | 140.8 (-6.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -7.6 (+8.4) | 138.2 (-4.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -7.9 (+8.1) | 141.6 (-7.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -8.0 (+8.0) | 142.1 (-8.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2021 | NAVY 67 – 40 MSM |
| Nov 28, 2020 | NAVY 73 – 67 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-6 | 5-9 |
| Away | 9-7 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 63.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#86) | 3.1 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#70) | 0.94 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#100) | 1.23 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#48) | 0.515 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 42.6% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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