Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -135 MSM +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +6 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -13.4 (+19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -7.6 (+13.6) | 132.3 (+7.7) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -7.2 (+13.2) | 131.1 (+8.9) | 22% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2022 | NAVY 75 – 59 MSM |
| Nov 27, 2021 | NAVY 67 – 40 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#153) | 7.5 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#98) | 1.82 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#100) | 2.50 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#11) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 18.2% |
| REB / G | 26.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 6.7% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 65.8% | 43.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 81.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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