Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +3 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -7.9 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -4.8 (+7.8) | 152.5 (+12.5) | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -5.0 (+8.0) | 152.2 (+12.8) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -4.7 (+7.7) | 153.6 (+11.4) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -4.4 (+7.4) | 150.8 (+14.2) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 28-4 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 13-1 |
| Home | 15-3 | 16-0 |
| Away | 9-2 | 5-1 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 87.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#10) | 24.2 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#9) | 2.97 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.20 (#8) | 5.12 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.691 (#8) | 0.629 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 55.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 2.13 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 62.4% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 41.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 7.4% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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