Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +22 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | INST -1.1 (+23.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -0.5 (+21.5) | 153.3 (+18.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -0.3 (+22.3) | 150.4 (+21.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -1.1 (+20.9) | 153.3 (+18.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -1.5 (+20.5) | 151.5 (+20.5) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2025 | INST 70 – 52 BALL |
| Nov 16, 2024 | INST 94 – 84 BALL |
| Dec 16, 2023 | INST 83 – 72 BALL |
| Nov 12, 2022 | INST 83 – 71 BALL |
| Dec 19, 2020 | INST 67 – 57 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 9-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-9 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#281) | 2.2 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#152) | 0.14 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#163) | 0.30 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#161) | 0.553 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 18.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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