Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | BALL -250 INST +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +10 | 178 | Lost |
| Massey | BALL -22.9 (-32.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+36.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -14.7 (-24.7) | 140.6 (+37.4) | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -9.1 (-19.1) | 150.7 (+27.3) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -13.4 (-23.4) | 142.6 (+35.4) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -14.6 (-24.6) | 142.8 (+35.2) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2025 | INST 70 – 52 BALL |
| Dec 16, 2023 | INST 83 – 72 BALL |
| Nov 12, 2022 | INST 83 – 71 BALL |
| Nov 27, 2021 | BALL 97 – 75 INST |
| Dec 19, 2020 | INST 67 – 57 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 81.5 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#131) | -12.3 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#300) | -2.31 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#302) | -3.25 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.347 (#302) | 0.208 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.0% | 36.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.7% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 24.2% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 14.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 60.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.4% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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