Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | INST -380 BALL +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +18 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | INST -16.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (-21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -11.3 (+6.7) | 136.4 (-14.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -11.2 (+6.8) | 142.5 (-20.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -10.4 (+7.6) | 138.6 (-16.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -12.7 (+5.3) | 135.7 (-13.7) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2024 | INST 94 – 84 BALL |
| Dec 16, 2023 | INST 83 – 72 BALL |
| Nov 12, 2022 | INST 83 – 71 BALL |
| Nov 27, 2021 | BALL 97 – 75 INST |
| Dec 19, 2020 | INST 67 – 57 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-7 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#193) | -11.3 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#88) | -2.48 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#90) | -4.16 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#93) | 0.336 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 25.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 61.1% | 61.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 10.3% |
Game Analysis
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