Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
| Money | INST -150 BALL +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +10 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | INST -7.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -3.4 (+6.6) | 143.1 (-19.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -3.0 (+7.0) | 144.5 (-20.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -4.0 (+6.0) | 143.3 (-19.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -3.1 (+6.9) | 142.9 (-18.9) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2025 | INST 70 – 52 BALL |
| Nov 16, 2024 | INST 94 – 84 BALL |
| Dec 16, 2023 | INST 83 – 72 BALL |
| Nov 12, 2022 | INST 83 – 71 BALL |
| Nov 27, 2021 | BALL 97 – 75 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-10 | 10-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-9 |
| Home | 9-3 | 7-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#126) | -0.7 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#212) | 0.23 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#208) | 0.79 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#124) | 0.549 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 25.0 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.4% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 62.5% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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