Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | BALL +1000 INST -1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +11 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -19.3 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -14.8 (+3.8) | 146.8 (+8.2) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -13.4 (+2.4) | 149.2 (+5.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -13.9 (+2.9) | 147.0 (+8.0) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -15.0 (+4.0) | 147.2 (+7.8) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2025 | INST 70 – 52 BALL |
| Nov 16, 2024 | INST 94 – 84 BALL |
| Nov 12, 2022 | INST 83 – 71 BALL |
| Nov 27, 2021 | BALL 97 – 75 INST |
| Dec 19, 2020 | INST 67 – 57 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 17-3 |
| Home | 9-7 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-8 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#258) | 14.7 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#161) | 3.12 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#203) | 3.85 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#188) | 0.608 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 52.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 41.2% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 61.7% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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