Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -21.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | CREI -2800 SIUE +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -12.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -14.8 (-9.8) | 139.6 (-4.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -9.4 (-4.4) | 141.0 (-6.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -10.3 (-5.3) | 140.8 (-5.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -10.7 (-5.7) | 141.4 (-6.4) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 12-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#126) | -2.5 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#48) | -0.32 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#53) | -0.39 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#87) | 0.413 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.0% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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