Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +2 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | CIN -7.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (-21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -7.8 (-9.8) | 142.3 (-22.3) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -6.3 (-8.3) | 139.6 (-19.6) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -8.4 (-10.4) | 144.8 (-24.8) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -7.7 (-9.7) | 143.2 (-23.2) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#53) | 7.3 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#52) | 1.94 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.20 (#37) | 2.24 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#54) | 0.612 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.5% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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