Betting Lines
| Spread | LIU -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | LIU -1000 DSU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIU +34 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | LIU -1.5 (+32.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (+29.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIU -6.3 (+27.7) | 148.6 (+15.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIU -1.8 (+32.2) | 139.4 (+24.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIU -2.5 (+31.5) | 140.3 (+23.7) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIU -4.0 (+30.0) | 144.4 (+19.6) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIU | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-14 | 2-26 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 0-14 |
| Home | 12-1 | 2-11 |
| Away | 4-13 | 0-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L25 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 60.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -13.2 (#348) | -7.8 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#263) | -3.47 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#236) | -5.34 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#245) | 0.215 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIU | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.2% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 22.9% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.3% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 27.3% | 24.5% |
| ORB% | 21.1% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 41.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 62.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 11.7% |
Game Analysis
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