Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.0 Under |
| Money | BRAD -1600 ME +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +32 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -19.3 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -14.6 (+17.4) | 126.3 (-16.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -11.6 (+20.4) | 127.1 (-17.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -11.8 (+20.2) | 128.1 (-18.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -14.2 (+17.8) | 124.4 (-14.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 6-23 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 3-15 |
| Home | 12-2 | 5-9 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 60.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 73.8 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#289) | -19.0 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.32 (#358) | -3.70 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.42 (#358) | -6.46 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.325 (#348) | 0.369 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 34.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 19.3% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 38.2% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 26.9% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 12.7% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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