Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +3 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -3.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -2.6 (-5.6) | 135.3 (-8.3) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -4.6 (-7.6) | 141.4 (-14.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -5.1 (-8.1) | 141.0 (-14.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -5.5 (-8.5) | 138.6 (-11.6) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2024 | UCF 74 – 63 OU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | OU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 65.0 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#87) | 8.8 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#27) | 1.31 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#56) | 2.26 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#85) | 0.553 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | OU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 80.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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