Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +22 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | UCLA -9.4 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (-18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -10.6 (-11.4) | 140.8 (-16.8) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -5.8 (-16.2) | 143.7 (-19.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -6.6 (-15.4) | 143.4 (-19.4) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -6.4 (-15.6) | 145.0 (-21.0) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 64.5 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#264) | 11.6 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#207) | 1.56 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#208) | 2.98 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#165) | 0.540 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 78.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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