Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | LUC -265 ASU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +18 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -12.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -9.5 (+8.5) | 139.2 (-3.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -9.0 (+9.0) | 142.3 (-6.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -9.3 (+8.7) | 142.4 (-6.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -8.8 (+9.2) | 142.1 (-6.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-3 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.9 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#16) | 1.2 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#175) | -1.43 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#157) | -1.82 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#164) | 0.454 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 41.5% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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