Portland
Pilots
74
–
68
FINAL
Neutral
Incarnate Word Thanksgiving Invitational
Southeast Missouri State
Redhawks
Betting Lines
| Spread | PORT -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PORT +6 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | PORT -5.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PORT -2.9 (+3.1) | 149.8 (-7.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PORT -4.8 (+1.2) | 146.7 (-4.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PORT -4.3 (+1.7) | 147.2 (-5.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PORT -4.3 (+1.7) | 150.2 (-8.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 8-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#171) | -5.9 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#240) | -0.68 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#256) | -1.84 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.345 (#338) | 0.386 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 33.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 36.0% |
Game Analysis
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