Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -24.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +34 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -34.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.8 (-24.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -28.8 (+5.2) | 162.3 (-26.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -24.5 (+9.5) | 154.4 (-18.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -32.7 (+1.3) | 152.2 (-16.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -34.4 (-0.4) | 158.4 (-22.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 18.5 (#5) | -9.2 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#39) | -3.34 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.73 (#26) | -5.32 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#109) | 0.217 (#358) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 34.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 20.0% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.56 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.6% | 38.0% |
| TOV% | 11.1% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 12.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.1% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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