Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -2.0 Push |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
| Money | UAB +115 SF -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +2 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | UAB -6.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (-26.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -3.4 (-5.4) | 143.6 (-19.6) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -2.6 (-4.6) | 145.9 (-21.9) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -2.7 (-4.7) | 146.3 (-22.3) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -2.8 (-4.8) | 146.5 (-22.5) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#24) | 5.6 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#91) | 2.27 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#89) | 2.97 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#95) | 0.613 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 59.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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