Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
| Money | IU -600 MRSH +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +11 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | IU -19.7 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -13.0 (-2.0) | 148.3 (+20.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -16.2 (-5.2) | 146.4 (+22.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -17.1 (-6.1) | 147.2 (+21.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -16.5 (-5.5) | 149.9 (+19.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-1 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#27) | -1.5 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#42) | 0.58 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#38) | 1.65 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#46) | 0.441 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 24.1% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 32.6% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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