Betting Lines
| Spread | PORT -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | UIW +245 PORT -290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PORT +9 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | PORT -4.7 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PORT -5.6 (-3.4) | 139.2 (+5.8) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PORT -6.4 (-2.6) | 136.4 (+8.6) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PORT -6.8 (-2.2) | 135.8 (+9.2) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PORT -6.5 (-2.5) | 135.7 (+9.3) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 7-7 |
| Home | 5-10 | 11-4 |
| Away | 1-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -11.9 (#344) | -0.4 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.09 (#356) | -0.65 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.15 (#358) | -1.51 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.390 (#312) | 0.395 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 26.4 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 27.0% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.9% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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