Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -22.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +39 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -18.0 (+21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -18.7 (+20.3) | 137.4 (-8.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -15.8 (+23.2) | 138.7 (-9.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -16.4 (+22.6) | 139.4 (-10.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -17.0 (+22.0) | 139.9 (-10.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-6 |
| Home | 13-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#32) | -0.8 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#8) | -0.78 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.92 (#14) | -1.39 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#28) | 0.469 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.