Betting Lines
| Spread | MILW -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | MILW -450 ALCN +370 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MILW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +4 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | ALCN -4.4 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -1.3 (-2.7) | 134.3 (-16.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -1.6 (-2.4) | 133.8 (-15.8) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -1.3 (-2.7) | 133.6 (-15.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -1.8 (-2.2) | 134.5 (-16.5) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MILW | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-14 | 14-4 |
| Home | 6-10 | 6-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 9-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#309) | 2.8 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#313) | -1.66 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#282) | -2.42 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#297) | 0.457 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MILW | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.6% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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