Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -18.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +17 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -18.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (+25.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -12.3 (+4.7) | 138.2 (+24.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -14.8 (+2.2) | 141.0 (+22.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -12.6 (+4.4) | 139.2 (+23.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -13.5 (+3.5) | 138.8 (+24.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 9-6 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 80.3 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#290) | -18.5 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#178) | -4.16 (#358) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#176) | -5.77 (#356) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#175) | 0.401 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.6% | 35.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.7% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 21.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 60.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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