Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +38 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | DEP -9.3 (+28.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -12.7 (+25.3) | 158.5 (+5.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -9.8 (+28.2) | 158.1 (+5.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEP -11.6 (+26.4) | 159.3 (+4.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -12.0 (+26.0) | 159.9 (+4.1) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 5-15 |
| Home | 11-7 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-9 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#110) | 1.2 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#44) | 0.13 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#50) | 1.22 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#59) | 0.533 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 42.8 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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