Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DRKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +3 | 111 | Lost |
| Massey | DRKE -8.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -6.8 (-9.8) | 131.0 (-20.0) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -5.5 (-8.5) | 126.6 (-15.6) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -6.9 (-9.9) | 130.9 (-19.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -7.6 (-10.6) | 130.8 (-19.8) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DRKE | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-6 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#49) | -0.3 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#145) | -2.71 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#136) | -3.74 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#73) | 0.365 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DRKE | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 79.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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