Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +16 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -14.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (-17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -14.7 (+1.3) | 147.8 (-11.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -13.4 (+2.6) | 151.1 (-15.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -14.4 (+1.6) | 150.8 (-14.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -13.8 (+2.2) | 151.1 (-15.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-5 |
| Home | 17-1 | 6-3 |
| Away | 5-4 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#78) | -2.6 (#233) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#23) | -0.13 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.07 (#19) | -0.35 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#29) | 0.491 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 79.4% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.