Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
| Money | ARST -190 KC +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +11 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | KC -8.5 (+19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KC -6.0 (+17.0) | 131.6 (-10.6) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KC -4.5 (+15.5) | 137.0 (-16.0) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | KC -5.9 (+16.9) | 135.6 (-14.6) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KC -5.3 (+16.3) | 134.0 (-13.0) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -10.9 (#337) | 4.3 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#215) | 1.76 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#229) | 2.79 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#277) | 0.624 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.1% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 23.8% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 58.0% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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