Betting Lines
| Spread | UNA -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNA +12 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -13.2 (-25.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -4.9 (-16.9) | 144.2 (+5.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -6.7 (-18.7) | 143.7 (+6.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -7.5 (-19.5) | 144.1 (+5.9) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -8.3 (-20.3) | 143.8 (+6.2) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2022 | UNA 71 – 63 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#170) | -6.6 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#266) | -1.51 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#261) | -2.31 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#230) | 0.489 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 31.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 23.4% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 35.4% |
| TOV% | 25.5% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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